CLIMATE CHANGE, RAINFALL AND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: A REGRESSION ANALYSIS

This work looks into the impact of climate change, carbon dioxide and rainfall on agricultural output/ performance in Nigeria using a time series data regression framework. Given the escalating vulnerability of Nigeria’s agriculture to climate linked shocks in understanding the link between carbon dioxide, rainfall and agricultural output which are important for economic growth and policy formulation. This study uses annual data from 1990 to 2024 that is sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators as well as the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The Nigerian agricultural output is the dependent variable while the independent variables for this study include climate change (which is proxied by average annual temperature (TEM), carbon dioxide emissions (C02) and rainfall); the control variable used in this study is the government agricultural expenditure (GOE). After the regression analysis, it was revealed that rainfall causes a noteworthy though nonlinear influence on agricultural output, implying that insufficient and heavy rainfall affects productivity adversely. Whereas, temperature was found to have a negative but statistically significance when compared with the dependent variable, showing that continuous increase in temperature because of climate change effect causing agricultural output to reduce. Carbon emissions as another independent variable exhibits a negative link with agricultural output, re-emphasizing the negative effects of climate change. The study finalizes by revealing that climate change poses a major threat to agricultural sustainability; It is thus recommended that policymakers make adequate policy for investment in climate-resilient practices in agricultural (like investment in adequate irrigation system, seed varieties, and technological weather forecasting tool).